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Bulletin no. 1 · Long outages

When the grid goes down, will your home hold?

Ten questions turn your water, food, heat, power and medicine into days. Fill in the readiness card, find your weakest system, and plan from a 72-hour storm outage to 90 days or more.

South Carolina customers averaged 53 hours without power in 2024, the longest of any state. Source: EIA, December 1, 2025

Two utility line workers in hard hats repairing wires and a transformer on a utility pole, one climbing and one in a bucket truck basket

2024 average · EIA

11 hours

without power per US customer, the most in a decade. Major events, mainly hurricanes, caused 80% of it.

EIA, December 1, 2025

Photo: Mario Spencer / Unsplash

Plans for four outage lengths

  1. 72

    Hours

    A storm takes down local lines. The average US customer was out about 11 hours in 2024 (EIA).

    72-hour checklist →
  2. 14

    Days

    A hurricane or ice storm damages the grid across a region, and crews rebuild it pole by pole.

    Build the Blackout Kit →
  3. 30

    Days

    A regional grid failure. Fuel, water treatment and cell sites run on backup power, then run short.

    The 30-day plan →
  4. 90+

    Days

    A severe geomagnetic storm or an attack damages transformers, which take a long time to replace.

    The 90-day plan →

Readiness card

Form PL-1 · 3 minutes

Worked example · from the score method

Household of 4 · cold winters

  • People in the household4
  • Water stored (1 gal / person / day)30 gal · 7 d
  • Food that needs no fridge14 d
  • Heat without the grid (cold winters)Wood stove · 30 d

Your home holds for

Weakest system: water

7 days

30 gallons ÷ (1 gallon × 4 people) = 7.5 days of water, the weakest critical system. First action: store about 10 more gallons to reach 10 days. How the score works.

Fill in your own card

What fails first

Sourced timeline

In a long outage, systems give out in a rough order. Timing varies by place and by how much backup a utility or carrier has. Each line names its source.

  1. Hour 0

    Plug-in medical devices

    Oxygen concentrators, CPAPs and other devices that run on wall power stop unless they have a battery or backup supply. FDA advises planning for this before an outage.

    U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Tips About Medical Devices and Natural Disasters, accessed October 31, 2026

  2. Hour 4

    Refrigerated food

    An unopened refrigerator keeps food cold for about 4 hours. FDA says to throw out perishable food that has been above 40°F for 4 hours or more.

    U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Food and Water Safety During Power Outages and Floods, current as of March 5, 2024

  3. Hour 24 to 48

    The freezer

    A full freezer holds a safe temperature for about 48 hours, a half-full one for about 24, with the door kept shut.

    U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Food and Water Safety During Power Outages and Floods, current as of March 5, 2024

  4. Hour 72

    Cell sites on backup power

    Cell sites keep running on batteries or generators until those run out. California requires carriers to keep at least 72 hours of backup power at sites in its high fire-threat districts.

    California Public Utilities Commission, CPUC Requires Wireless Companies to Better Serve Customers in Emergencies (press release, R.18-03-011), July 16, 2020

  5. Days 2 to 3

    Water pressure, treatment and sewage

    Without power, pumps at a water utility can halt the production of treated water, and sewage can overflow. Backup power is not required under the Safe Drinking Water or Clean Water Acts. EPA's planning guide covers outages of 2 to 3 days and of several weeks.

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Power Resilience: An Achievable Goal (EPA 810-F-24-018), June 2024

  6. Day 4

    Fuel

    Four days after Hurricane Sandy made landfall, EIA estimated that 67% of gas stations in the New York metro area had no gasoline for sale.

    U.S. Department of Energy, Hurricane Sandy Situation Report #15, citing EIA's emergency survey, November 4, 2012

  7. Day 28

    Insulin without a fridge

    Insulin vials and cartridges may be left unrefrigerated at 59 to 86°F for up to 28 days and still work, per FDA. Some products differ, so check the label.

    U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Insulin Storage and Switching Between Products in an Emergency, current as of September 28, 2026

  8. Day 90+

    Replacement transformers

    In an extreme (G5) geomagnetic storm, NOAA says transformers may experience damage. Orders for new distribution transformers were taking about two years to fill in 2024, Congress's research service reports.

    Congressional Research Service, Electricity Distribution Transformers: Supply, Tariffs, and Policy Options (R48933), April 23, 2026

Plans and guides

Research-based · sources on every page
All guides →

Gear by stage

Research-based picks · no testing · no prices

Picks chosen from manufacturer specs and published data. We do not test products. Prices change, so each link goes to Amazon for the current price.

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Starter

72 hours

Light, alerts, water and a CO alarm. The kit every home should have.

Serious

2 weeks

Power for the fridge and phones, water treatment, food and indoor-safe heat.

Long-haul

30 to 90+ days

Deep food stores, high-volume water filtering, more heat and a radio that never needs the grid.

Conditions now

Live · NOAA SWPC · NWS

Space weather from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center and active weather alerts from the National Weather Service, loaded straight from the agencies in your browser.

Live data loads in your browser. Sources: NOAA SWPC (space weather scales, planetary K-index) and the National Weather Service (active alerts).

What the G scale means for the power grid

  1. G1 MinorKp 5

    "Weak power grid fluctuations can occur."NOAA, average frequency: 1700 per cycle (900 days per cycle)

    Common. No effect on household power.

  2. G2 ModerateKp 6

    "High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms, long-duration storms may cause transformer damage."NOAA, average frequency: 600 per cycle (360 days per cycle)

    Grid operators in the far north watch voltage. Households are not affected.

  3. G3 StrongKp 7

    "Voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices."NOAA, average frequency: 200 per cycle (130 days per cycle)

    Operators adjust the grid. A good day to check your kit, not to worry.

  4. G4 SevereKp 8, including a 9-

    "Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems will mistakenly trip out key assets from the grid."NOAA, average frequency: 100 per cycle (60 days per cycle)

    Equipment can trip offline. Local outages are possible. Charge phones and power banks.

  5. G5 ExtremeKp 9

    "Widespread voltage control problems and protective system problems can occur, some grid systems may experience complete collapse or blackouts. Transformers may experience damage."NOAA, average frequency: 4 per cycle (4 days per cycle)

    Rare. Blackouts are possible and damaged transformers take a long time to replace. This is the case a 30-day plan is for.

Source: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, NOAA Space Weather Scales, checked October 31, 2026. A cycle is the roughly 11-year solar cycle. Readiness for a G5 is a 90-day plan.

Grid risk outlook · NERC

Where NERC sees shortfalls

Elevated: supply could fall short in extreme weather. High: shortfalls possible even at a normal peak. Neither is a prediction that an outage will happen.

Full outlook and reasons

This winter · elevated

  • Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, VermontElevated
  • North and South CarolinaElevated
  • Central Southeast (Tennessee Valley region)Elevated
  • Most of TexasElevated
  • Utah, southern Idaho and part of western WyomingElevated
  • Pacific NorthwestElevated

NERC 2025–2026 Winter Reliability Assessment, November 2025

Next 10 years · high risk

  • MISOHigh risk from 2028High
  • PJMElevated 2026–28, high from 2029High
  • Texas RE-ERCOTElevated 2026–28, high from 2029High
  • WECC-BasinElevated 2026–28, high from 2029High
  • WECC-NorthwestHigh from 2029High

NERC 2025 Long-Term Reliability Assessment, January 2026

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Sister site · Backup power

BackupPowerAI

How many watt-hours does your outage need? Add up your fridge, medical devices, heat and lights, and see the power station, solar kit or generator that covers them, with every step of the math.

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Power Lockdown

Grid-down readiness for households: from a 72-hour storm outage to 90 days without the grid. Every figure links to a named, dated public source.

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Live conditions come from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center and the National Weather Service. Grid risk summarizes published NERC reliability assessments; outage statistics come from the U.S. Energy Information Administration; safety guidance comes from Ready.gov (FEMA), CDC, CPSC and FDA. This site is not affiliated with any government agency or utility. General information only, not professional safety, medical or electrical advice.

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