Grid risk outlook · NERC

Where NERC says the grid is most stretched

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation rates every grid region before each season and over the next 10 years. These are its ratings, region by region, with the reasons it gives.

Updated October 27, 2026 · Static summary of published reports

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How to read the ratings

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) publishes seasonal and 10-year reliability assessments. Elevated risk means supply could fall short in extreme weather. High risk means shortfalls are possible even in normal peak conditions. Neither is a prediction that an outage will happen. This is a static summary of published reports, not a live feed.

Winter 2025–2026: elevated-risk areas

NERC found every area adequate for a normal winter peak, but flagged seven assessment areas as elevated risk: they could run short of supply during extreme, widespread cold. No area was rated high risk.

NERC areaCoversRatingReason NERC gives

NPCC-New Englandelevated riskConnecticut, Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermontelevated riskLong cold snaps, when constrained natural gas pipelines can lead to rapid depletion of stored fuel supplies.

SERC-Eastelevated riskNorth and South Carolinaelevated riskPeak demand forecast up 700 MW (1.6%) while firm capacity declined.

SERC-Centralelevated riskCentral Southeast (Tennessee Valley region)elevated riskExtreme cold can result in insufficient operating reserves.

Texas RE-ERCOTelevated riskMost of Texaselevated riskStrong load growth from new data centers and reserve shortage risk at peak.

WECC-Basinelevated riskUtah, southern Idaho and part of western Wyomingelevated riskCould be short about 1.6 GW in extreme demand before counting imports.

WECC-Northwestelevated riskPacific Northwestelevated riskPeak forecast 2.9 GW (9.3%) higher, and help from neighbors may not be available.

Also elevated (Canada): NPCC-Maritimes (New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island).

Aggregate winter peak demand rose by 20 GW (2.5%) since the previous winter.
Resources rose by a smaller amount, 9.4 GW.
No assessment area was rated high risk; seven were rated elevated.

NERC publishes the 2026–2027 Winter Reliability Assessment each November; this section will be updated when it is released.

Source: NERC, 2025–2026 Winter Reliability Assessment, November 2025

The next 10 years

NERC's 10-year outlook says 13 of 23 assessment areas face resource adequacy challenges, driven mostly by new data center demand. Five US areas move to high risk later this decade.

NERC areaCoversRatingTiming in the report

MISOhigh riskCentral US, from Minnesota to Louisianahigh riskHigh risk from 2028

PJMhigh riskMid-Atlantic and parts of the Midwest (13 states + DC)high riskElevated 2026–28, high from 2029

Texas RE-ERCOThigh riskMost of Texashigh riskElevated 2026–28, high from 2029

WECC-Basinhigh riskUtah, southern Idaho, western Wyominghigh riskElevated 2026–28, high from 2029

WECC-Northwesthigh riskPacific Northwesthigh riskHigh from 2029

Also rated elevated (US): SERC-East, MRO-SPP, NPCC-New England, NPCC-New York.

13 of 23 assessment areas face resource adequacy challenges over the next 10 years.
Summer peak demand is projected to rise by over 224 GW over 10 years; winter peak by over 245 GW.
New data centers account for most of the projected increase.

Timing shown follows the report's section headings; some body text gives slightly different start years. Canadian elevated-risk areas (Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Maritimes, Québec) are omitted here. See the full report for details.

Source: NERC, 2025 Long-Term Reliability Assessment, January 2026

Summer 2026 (season ended)

For summer 2026, NERC rated three areas elevated risk and none high risk. Texas (ERCOT) was rated normal risk, with a transmission caveat for Far West Texas.

NERC areaCoversRatingReason NERC gives

NPCC-New Englandelevated riskSix New England stateselevated riskNet firm imports fell by 836 MW, to 409 MW.

WECC-Northwestelevated riskPacific Northwestelevated riskDrought and low hydro output; Washington snowpack was 52% of normal on April 1.

MRO-SaskPowerelevated riskSaskatchewan (Canada)elevated riskReserve margin fell from 34% to 29%.

Summer peak demand forecast up over 11 GW.
Resources up over 58.5 GW, including about 30.5 GW of new solar nameplate and over 16 GW of batteries.

Source: NERC, 2026 Summer Reliability Assessment, May 2026

A rating is not a prediction that an outage will happen. To find out how long your own home could run without the grid, take the readiness score, or start with the 72-hour checklist.